Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f3083618dd91e0ce07de40e52dce45a1fc63f7494e44bfb6065bba67c6e4df3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 1,357$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 631.77$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.59 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 18c | 431.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 20c | 313.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.72 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 22c | 258.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed No | 79c | 255$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.35 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 31c | 202$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.16 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 18c | 199.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.53 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…0cc9backed Yes | 20c | 184.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 170.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.16 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 59c | 152$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.07 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 146.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 133.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 132.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 113$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 111.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 79c | 101.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 99.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 95.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 19c | 87.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 81.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 78.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 34c | 75.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 74c | 67.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 26c | 61.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 58.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 26c | 49.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 21c | 46.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 26c | 39.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 51c | 35.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…24d1backed No | 60c | 33.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 27.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 24.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 56c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 50c | 20.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed Yes | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 80c | 13.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.