Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca13469c98c35a5dd15b3670068a738cf5770584cffc9ed7f386100ad32280c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 34c | 401.38$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 390.2$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 266.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 20c | 237.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 236.28$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 175.29$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 146.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 135.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 25c | 133.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 133.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 126.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 107$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 28c | 104$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 101.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 96.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 85.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…24d1backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 80.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 35c | 75.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 57c | 75.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 71c | 72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 65.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 34c | 59.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 65c | 58.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 28c | 54.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 78c | 54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 53.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 50c | 53.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 51.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed No | 30c | 49.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 29c | 47.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 30c | 47.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…0cc9backed Yes | 29c | 42.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 42.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 28c | 42.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 37c | 38.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 37.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 37.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 30c | 36.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 32c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 72c | 35.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 31.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 75c | 26.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 24.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 78c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 61c | 20.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 18.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 17.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed No | 73c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 69c | 14.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cda…e598backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.