Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f3cbc08e1068bc3a0547798271d4014363fcc585d87e146bd82fcbd3eec18cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked No | 10c | 220.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 191.14$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 184.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 166.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 146.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 129.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 113.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 37c | 91.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 89.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 85.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 85.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 39c | 83.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 38c | 79.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 61c | 76.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 76.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 68.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 48c | 67.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 73c | 66.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 63.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 41c | 59.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 59.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 43c | 58.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 53.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 48c | 46.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes | 39c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 36c | 42.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 37c | 36.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 36c | 33.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 62c | 33.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 31.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 30.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 40c | 30.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 28.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 41c | 28.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 27.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 25.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 39c | 25.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 24.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 60c | 23.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 22.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 58c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 60c | 20.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 80c | 17.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 80c | 17.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 61c | 16.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.