Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc97333dcbb857b44680267a7cecb6ffc46d3ceb194bfe1d23a58eb10eae2659
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 448.3$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 22c | 280.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 245.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 20c | 189.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 161.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 157$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 146.15$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4a…efa3backed Yes | 19c | 140.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 9c | 138$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 19c | 131.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 108.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 104.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 49c | 102.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 101.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 100.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 97.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 92.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 90.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 82.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 80c | 77.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 71.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 79c | 70.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 79c | 70.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 63.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 25c | 44.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 78c | 44.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 79c | 40.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 31c | 36.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 46c | 36.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 34.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 67c | 30.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 29.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 28.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 26.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 24.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 51c | 23.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 77c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.