Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f5ac6802894e9788072a93645a51086f44042f3314bf7a864f72fda94e40a9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 13,450$7,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,601.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684c…93dfbacked Yes | 38c | 13,000$4,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,060 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.93 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 43c | 2,820$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.4 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 61c | 911.11$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.33 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 58c | 839$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.38 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 38c | 662.92$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.28 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 40c | 557.87$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.08 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…ca8dbacked Yes | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 68c | 380.22$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.65 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Yes | 56c | 346.13$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.3 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 43c | 278.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked No | 44c | 246.16$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 61c | 240$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked No | 44c | 222.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…9732backed Yes | 61c | 204.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 39c | 204.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…ef5ebacked Yes | 57c | 203.51$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 39c | 201.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Yes | 38c | 197.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.57 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 42c | 174.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 62c | 170.66$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed No | 41c | 150.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 57c | 126.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 41c | 126.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 58c | 124.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Yes | 60c | 115$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 62c | 108.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 31c | 102.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 43c | 92.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed No | 43c | 90.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 44c | 86.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3548…0ebbbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 39c | 75.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 56c | 70.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 39c | 70.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 39c | 66.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 43c | 55.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 62c | 53.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 57c | 53.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 57c | 53.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 57c | 53.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 57c | 53.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…a77fbacked Yes | 59c | 52.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked No | 64c | 50.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…534ebacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…e34ebacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…0163backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 43c | 37.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked No | 42c | 33.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 38c | 28.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes | 49c | 28.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed No | 42c | 28.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed No | 43c | 28.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 50cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…ebb0backed Yes | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Yes | 58c | 25.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 20.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Yes | 68c | 15.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.