Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb15cae1807693efa163db3cc667d2efde3ff53620a657d9e001cb2d6509cb8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 5,758$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.81 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 63c | 2,522$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.3 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 64c | 2,495$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.39 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 68c | 2,377$1,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.08 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Over | 73c | 1,373$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.36 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 63c | 1,275$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.78 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +72%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 79c | 1,100$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 65c | 563$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.05 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 36c | 463.31$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.85 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 24c | 333.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 65c | 307.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 66c | 301.49$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.26 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 31c | 284.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 70c | 264.69$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 29c | 224.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Over | 63c | 148.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 52cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…5331backed Over | 78c | 128.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 25c | 101.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 35c | 99.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 22c | 99.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Over | 71c | 88.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 15c | 83.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2df9backed Over | 63c | 78.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 77c | 78.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 64c | 63.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Under | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 64c | 55.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 32c | 53.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 37c | 36.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…55fcbacked Over | 74c | 32.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…760dbacked Over | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…ab23backed Over | 74c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 75c | 22.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 80c | 15.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.