Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f6d70578e44e05a1faf76b966932f5b8abb4767e13928ff339448ef505c715c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 14,849$9,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,328.96 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 5,665$3,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,010.78 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 33c | 4,215$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820.37 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +72%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Over | 33c | 3,077$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,076.82 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 70c | 1,875$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.82 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 59c | 1,386$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.81 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 14c | 993.31$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.28 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 73c | 890.41$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 12c | 773.59$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.02 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 55c | 770.1$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.38 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Over | 34c | 753.95$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.61 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Over | 34c | 735.78$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.78 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 11c | 714.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.99 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 69c | 636.66$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.3 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 29c | 522.93$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.67 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 38c | 368.54$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 71c | 323.23$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 15c | 204.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.52 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 10c | 198.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.92 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 155.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 148.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 33c | 133.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 36c | 132.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 26c | 114.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 50c | 103.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed Over | 51c | 103.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 71c | 102.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 71c | 95.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 67c | 85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Over | 14c | 79.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1d…3ca2backed Under | 26c | 78.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 45c | 67.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…dbcfbacked Under | 55c | 61.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked Over | 49c | 61.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 41c | 56.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 34c | 54.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Under | 79c | 52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 75c | 47.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 79c | 45.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…333fbacked Under | 68c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93c1…5981backed Under | 67c | 43.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Under | 60c | 43.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 36c | 42.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 53c | 33.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Over | 39c | 33.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…ca53backed Over | 64c | 30.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 53c | 27.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Over | 71c | 24.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 52cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.