Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f81f3bbe3f900fdc6186c521f9508234fe6bdf1b59b80a64e404238b6005cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregon Ducksof Penn State Nittany Lions, Oregon Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Oregon Ducks | 76c | 3,120$2,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.35 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 24c | 3,078$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.3 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oregon Ducks | 74c | 1,845$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.59 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 12c | 1,712$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.3 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 31c | 1,650$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.86 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 26c | 1,401$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.63 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oregon Ducks | 71c | 1,388$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.98 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 2c | 1,132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon Ducks | 70c | 828.42$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.35 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 35c | 764.16$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.82 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Oregon Ducks | 79c | 672.15$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.15 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 10c | 650$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 5c | 575$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 30c | 570$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 371 | 42.6%158 W · 213 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 16c | 554.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 30c | 478.57$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Oregon Ducks | 70c | 410$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Oregon Ducks | 60c | 404.25$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da9…93b3backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 27c | 383.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 30c | 329.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 140 | 27.1%38 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…eb6abacked Oregon Ducks | 59c | 322.76$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.47 | 157 | 33.1%52 W · 105 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Oregon Ducks | 56c | 262.55$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.01 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Oregon Ducks | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Oregon Ducks | 72c | 228$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Oregon Ducks | 71c | 215.94$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 29c | 215.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Oregon Ducks | 53c | 159.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Oregon Ducks | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Oregon Ducks | 72c | 129.7$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 26c | 125.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Oregon Ducks | 79c | 122.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…22e4backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 20c | 100.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb02…0f88backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 20c | 94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 29c | 82.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Oregon Ducks | 72c | 74.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 379 | 47.8%181 W · 198 L | -26.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…f827backed Oregon Ducks | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Oregon Ducks | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 48 | 77.1%37 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Oregon Ducks | 70c | 64.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oregon Ducks | 78c | 63.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 30c | 52.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Oregon Ducks | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 31c | 49.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Oregon Ducks | 72c | 48.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 34c | 44.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 227 | 30.4%69 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c4…0c01backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 39c | 41.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Oregon Ducks | 52c | 30.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Oregon Ducks | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b48…c530backed Oregon Ducks | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Oregon Ducks | 76c | 20.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducksthis page
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 146.5Over won
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 147.5Over won
- Spread: Oregon Ducks (-6.5)Oregon Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.