TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
4ikibamboniof Flame Team, 4ikibamboni
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,142
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,142 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfab…f067backed Flame Team44c2,529$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10048057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed 4ikibamboni46c2,003$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.4821155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 4ikibamboni56c1,514$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.32,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked 4ikibamboni59c1,426$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.9935960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Flame Team44c1,322$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.461,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked 4ikibamboni50c1,117$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.3479859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked 4ikibamboni74c1,026$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.031,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Flame Team51c1,014$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.4477256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Flame Team34c960.19$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.791,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Flame Team33c866.43$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9224636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked 4ikibamboni64c829.99$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.931055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Flame Team37c801.87$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5851544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed 4ikibamboni52c799.98$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.9937655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca2…088ebacked Flame Team23c772$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.324742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed 4ikibamboni66c729.98$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8958356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddc6…13c4backed Flame Team48c692.83$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3911449.1%56 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed 4ikibamboni62c679.03$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.2434561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked 4ikibamboni63c655.27$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.314343.4%62 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked Flame Team56c549.99$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.1910653.8%57 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Flame Team35c539.88$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4271143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Flame Team24c532$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.924337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 4ikibamboni49c469.29$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.141,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Flame Team23c446$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2628336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Flame Team53c433.06$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.5254058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x245d…3b90backed 4ikibamboni68c420$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.965735.1%20 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Flame Team57c419.21$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.9514048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked 4ikibamboni52c379.79$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.4853844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685f…c586backed Flame Team59c375.83$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202548%12 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed Flame Team40c353.43$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9810933%36 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Flame Team43c337.3$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.381,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc75…af4dbacked Flame Team24c323.15$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.469150.5%46 W · 45 L+12.5wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+23.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Flame Team51c309.44$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1579543.2%41 W · 54 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed 4ikibamboni74c301.84$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8472154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a2e…e1b2backed 4ikibamboni75c265.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed 4ikibamboni43c230.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8520442.2%86 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked 4ikibamboni65c229.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5648053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Flame Team44c223.47$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7252649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed 4ikibamboni57c220$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.67656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Flame Team33c212.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7678516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed 4ikibamboni50c190$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dad…c7fdbacked Flame Team65c182.23$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked 4ikibamboni57c182.17$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.391,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Flame Team28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504942.9%21 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec61…f8a1backed Flame Team32c161.73$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.752334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce8…75f2backed Flame Team46c139.14$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3312132.2%39 W · 82 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e5f…6ee5backed Flame Team54c131.91$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.134944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Flame Team21c120$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.225351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Flame Team30c118.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.55940.7%24 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked Flame Team43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439242.4%39 W · 53 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d28…ad7cbacked Flame Team32c94.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303920.5%8 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Flame Team43c93.64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.638645.3%39 W · 47 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked 4ikibamboni50c91.02$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.061,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8885…7712backed 4ikibamboni57c90$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Flame Team40c89.58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5281345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Flame Team32c89.19$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.542,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Flame Team25c87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8966545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Flame Team30c83.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257445.9%34 W · 40 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed 4ikibamboni53c74.34$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9442660.1%256 W · 170 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…a117backed Flame Team41c70.05$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.941711.8%2 W · 15 L-5.4wins-0.32per pick43cpaid-82.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Flame Team42c66.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7217443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88aa…2f5ebacked Flame Team50c66.06$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.033455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e99…2229backed Flame Team56c64.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.128736.8%32 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Flame Team31c60.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7119449%95 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8649…ba57backed 4ikibamboni47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.88040%32 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed 4ikibamboni47c59.57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.576543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Flame Team43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023529.4%69 W · 166 L-21.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f9b…bc2fbacked 4ikibamboni67c44.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.786762.7%42 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked 4ikibamboni46c42.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0926958.7%158 W · 111 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5cc…ed79backed 4ikibamboni43c42.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.03771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Flame Team27c40.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0538244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa03f…7560backed Flame Team33c40.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.491735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca2…1798backed 4ikibamboni73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.86271%44 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1755…b972backed Flame Team32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked 4ikibamboni47c36.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3625851.2%132 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4787…db20backed Flame Team43c33.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.453964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Flame Team41c31.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.023286.4%21 W · 307 L-102.4wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-72.6%equal weight18-0.29 edge/pick
0xf49a…8981backed Flame Team52c31.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2f…9123backed Flame Team53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.97341.1%30 W · 43 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed 4ikibamboni45c29.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4929550.2%148 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x212a…a758backed Flame Team49c27.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.