Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdba94f4ed467b1b5b22d34412a031202248785cb22c238e7c8b4a25395116b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flame Teamof Flame Team, 4ikibamboni
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Flame Team | 50c | 3,150$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.27 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked 4ikibamboni | 71c | 2,366$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.01 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Flame Team | 18c | 1,904$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.88 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Flame Team | 30c | 1,856$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.76 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Flame Team | 27c | 1,560$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.5 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked 4ikibamboni | 76c | 1,458$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.3 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Flame Team | 35c | 1,064$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.48 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2919…f3d7backed 4ikibamboni | 1c | 1,012$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Flame Team | 43c | 944.76$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.27 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed Flame Team | 21c | 585.95$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.38 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Flame Team | 31c | 577.91$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.76 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Flame Team | 28c | 517.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.25 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…f8a1backed Flame Team | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…c586backed Flame Team | 43c | 469.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.63 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 4ikibamboni | 63c | 448.58$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.31 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 4ikibamboni | 74c | 427.39$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.33 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…7337backed 4ikibamboni | 78c | 398.31$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -7.3wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed 4ikibamboni | 64c | 313.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Flame Team | 20c | 310.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed 4ikibamboni | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed 4ikibamboni | 66c | 293.07$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.1 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed 4ikibamboni | 51c | 269.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…3b90backed Flame Team | 70c | 243.62$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…b72bbacked 4ikibamboni | 39c | 230.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed 4ikibamboni | 61c | 210$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Flame Team | 30c | 201.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.39 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac19…65bfbacked 4ikibamboni | 65c | 187.71$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Flame Team | 64c | 166.22$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed 4ikibamboni | 71c | 161.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Flame Team | 18c | 158.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.14 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…bc2fbacked 4ikibamboni | 73c | 143.87$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked 4ikibamboni | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Flame Team | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Flame Team | 26c | 120.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d28…ad7cbacked Flame Team | 38c | 110.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…c7b2backed 4ikibamboni | 65c | 103.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed Flame Team | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Flame Team | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed 4ikibamboni | 61c | 99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Flame Team | 30c | 97.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…290cbacked Flame Team | 36c | 83.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed 4ikibamboni | 70c | 77.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b43…04e2backed Flame Team | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…b4ffbacked 4ikibamboni | 80c | 70.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed 4ikibamboni | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked 4ikibamboni | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…5504backed 4ikibamboni | 63c | 53.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Flame Team | 39c | 51.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…6f16backed 4ikibamboni | 73c | 50.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed Flame Team | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Flame Team | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked 4ikibamboni | 67c | 31.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…e878backed 4ikibamboni | 66c | 30.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed 4ikibamboni | 64c | 28.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…cad6backed 4ikibamboni | 70c | 21.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…ea33backed 4ikibamboni | 73c | 19.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group BFlame Team won
- Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner4ikibamboni won
- Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5)Flame Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.