CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fd7330600d65eae0babfc81419f9f6d588f0f52f8b7320186b3c75a788a29fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiNof NIP, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182d…73e9backed paiN | 66c | 1,617$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.89 | 786 | 39.4%310 W · 476 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed NIP | 34c | 659.17$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.63 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed NIP | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked NIP | 34c | 350$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 488 | 45.7%223 W · 265 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…4332backed NIP | 34c | 309.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | -17.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed paiN | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 559 | 41%229 W · 330 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed NIP | 34c | 218.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 374 | 48.4%181 W · 193 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed paiN | 76c | 185$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…3234backed NIP | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed NIP | 34c | 68.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked NIP | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…05f4backed paiN | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed paiN | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 471 | 65.2%307 W · 164 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…5e79backed paiN | 66c | 50.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed NIP | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked NIP | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked paiN | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked paiN | 69c | 39.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…f593backed NIP | 35c | 37.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed paiN | 66c | 30.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c3…3451backed paiN | 66c | 29.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed paiN | 65c | 18.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked paiN | 72c | 17.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierpaiN won
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs paiN - Map 1 WinnerpaiN won
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs paiN - Map 2 WinnerpaiN won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)paiN won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5)paiN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.