MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fd96d5922454bb4e9b71da71a3fbd2a9c3855754f1faa1e49a68bb393dc3d63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 7,479$4,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,897.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 34c | 3,400$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Under | 39c | 2,053$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.96 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 34c | 1,387$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.61 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 79c | 1,148$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 34c | 967$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 34c | 735$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.1 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 15c | 460.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 34c | 413.93$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.34 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 35c | 314.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 29c | 217$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.12 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 67c | 191.09$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 33c | 176.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 166$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 63c | 164.05$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 65c | 164$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 65c | 154$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 60c | 121$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 35c | 117.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 70c | 105.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 65c | 71.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 49c | 62.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 61c | 60.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 35c | 54.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 36c | 53.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 64c | 48.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Over | 61c | 28.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 67c | 18.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 60c | 17.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 63c | 16.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 67c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 15.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.