MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e8beb1fc4cef5d6712d318b768342c49e43423c660a7fcbe5e2d5ca009dd84b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 17,575$6,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,958.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcd…811bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 13,725$8,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,896.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.51per pick | 67cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 54c | 3,865$2,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 2,289$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.9 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…3241backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 1,974$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.29 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 54c | 1,837$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.54 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 1,625$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 1,050$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 1,003$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.72 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 421.01$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.01 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 345.22$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.22 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 321.42$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.56 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 311.17$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 175$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 147.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 143.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 104.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 103.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 96.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 78.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 67.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 66.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 65.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…9874backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 57.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 55.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 41.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 39.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 38.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 33.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 31.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 54c | 30.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 24.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 24.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 23.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 21.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 17.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…3bc8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 16.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 15.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.