MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36cf92cb9bd73d55c201600ff74adcc7c394c8b68c28fbdabbf9494e56444447
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 2,599$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.87 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 2,544$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 2,424$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 2,419$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Chicago Cubs | 56c | 1,633$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.94 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 651.13$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.56 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 448.52$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 396$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 30c | 390.49$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 262.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 250.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 239$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.69 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 212.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 130.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 130.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 116.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 113.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 113.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 113.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 99.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Chicago Cubs | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Chicago Cubs | 12c | 85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | +11.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 73.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 73.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fc…ff0bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 69.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 63.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 54.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 49.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago Cubs | 29c | 47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 39.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 30c | 38.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Chicago Cubs | 78c | 28.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 28.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 25.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 22.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Chicago Cubs | 67c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 14.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 15.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.