MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc43fa8f04fe0ab505cda3ecf9c6fc3a6bd6983c6eb913b48a0cb5a76434ea378
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 1,768$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.6 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 1,310$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 700.3$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 10c | 646.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94be…e0b4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 581.38$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 497.13$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.82 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 482.92$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 28c | 420$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 241.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 182.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 160$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.66 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 149.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 95.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 95.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…935fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 85.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 73.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…cd5fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Chicago Cubs | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 55.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 32.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 29.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 21.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 15.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.