MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7260838e39c1a7ffc8c235b71c6e8e710524c497517869c622231129d733cd3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed No | 55c | 7,279$3,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,979.53 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 45c | 4,338$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.2 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Yes | 45c | 1,416$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.99 | 224 | 47.3%106 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 55c | 1,101$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 622$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.93 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 46c | 540.2$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.08 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 47c | 271$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.63 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 44c | 172.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 45c | 164$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 55c | 135$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 50c | 122.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Yes | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 177 | 46.3%82 W · 95 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed No | 52c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 379 | 51.7%196 W · 183 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed No | 54c | 45.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 50c | 37.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…6d35backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…772abacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Yes | 46c | 31.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Yes | 46c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…6fd9backed No | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubsthis page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 15.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.