Movies · resolved market
Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–84?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ffb87b9520b2182bbe81f3e28a6bdf4723e06f2706920aaa718d59de385f966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 68c | 1,250$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 28c | 1,100$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.64 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…508ebacked No | 43c | 990$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 8c | 475$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 78c | 459.95$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.95 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…5e81backed Yes | 57c | 440$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe01a…d4e9backed No | 74c | 415.07$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e89…268bbacked Yes | 57c | 415$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 23c | 335.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa5…e358backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd240…562cbacked Yes | 22c | 273.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed No | 65c | 241.44$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 52c | 239.14$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.01 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 58c | 209$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 68c | 207.8$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 77c | 206.67$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 76c | 128.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 20c | 123.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 15c | 114$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…637ebacked Yes | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…7601backed Yes | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…c23fbacked Yes | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 58c | 85.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 65c | 82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 30c | 67.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…8eadbacked Yes | 34c | 59.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 50.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 47c | 44.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ff…b1d1backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f8…6f3bbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…3a34backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 44c | 27.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–84?this page
- Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher?No won
- Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70–74?No won
- Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 75–79?No won
- Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85–89?Yes won
- Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 70?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.