Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7001ea583d953228330506139f7028960b0c0dcbda0854046cf71a4ba1d0626e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 45c | 25,163$11,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,323.39 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 24,778$13,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,139.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 3,613$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.2 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 2,955$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.73 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 60c | 2,133$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 2,131$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.19 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 53c | 1,043$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.44 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Over | 67c | 740.82$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…576bbacked Over | 68c | 484.16$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 21c | 469.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 67c | 319.29$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.29 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 65c | 307.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Over | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 55c | 281.82$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 65c | 260$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d8…682abacked Over | 60c | 214.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 200.41$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…b7e9backed Under | 21c | 190.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20f…fcaabacked Over | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc8…6875backed Under | 41c | 173.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 31c | 169.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 61c | 161.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b5…3f5ebacked Over | 66c | 151.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 54c | 149$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 66c | 143.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over | 77c | 134.76$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 78c | 115.77$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…a292backed Over | 78c | 113.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 74c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ce…21ebbacked Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 19c | 95.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 80c | 89.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 20c | 82.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 21c | 77.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Over | 72c | 64.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Over | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 60c | 46.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…5f52backed Over | 54c | 36.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba77…da86backed Over | 80c | 24.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Over | 79c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9678backed Over | 73c | 20.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 79c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5this page
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.