Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf112bd896964965def2bd9623efa89a6ab6f9cbdb82f1949f4243ba04b186fb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 2,820$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Yes | 57c | 1,995$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.32 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 42c | 1,214$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.23 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 49c | 1,028$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 58c | 948.28$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 867.03$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 58c | 608.5$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…b6d3backed Yes | 3c | 371.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 54c | 371.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 42c | 294.09$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.28 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 56c | 263.07$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 46c | 225.56$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 43c | 188.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…8cc7backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 56c | 159.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 42c | 156.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 62c | 127.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Yes | 49c | 103.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5876…793fbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 42c | 96.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 45c | 92.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 27c | 74.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 58c | 69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x979b…ed36backed Yes | 49c | 63.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 61c | 52.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 42c | 51.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…818ebacked No | 43c | 44.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Yes | 44c | 40.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ff…4b6fbacked Yes | 44c | 40.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked No | 45c | 40.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x575d…4326backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Yes | 55c | 31.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…9ecdbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Yes | 55c | 28.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…29b4backed No | 48c | 26.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…d49bbacked No | 45c | 25.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097a…efc4backed Yes | 57c | 20.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…a7debacked No | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.