Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeab6390787ffa17f39afaf22053647360d139fb8e76e1ebf480054203b4050ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 67c | 40,317$27,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,314.11 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 20,772$6,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,037.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 33c | 6,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 33c | 1,900$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 34c | 1,709$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 33c | 1,410$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.37 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 33c | 1,368$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.44 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Under | 67c | 1,335$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 35c | 1,100$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 65c | 1,066$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.53 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 30c | 958.55$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.93 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 63c | 949.63$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.62 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 33c | 933$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.89 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 33c | 920$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 33c | 727.27$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 33c | 681.82$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 67c | 658.64$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.35 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 404$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Over | 33c | 388.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 33c | 318.18$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 26c | 312.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 66c | 299.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 220.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Under | 77c | 176.8$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 32c | 149.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 33c | 135$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 67c | 125.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 33c | 123.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 33c | 115$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Over | 34c | 86.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 33c | 83.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 33c | 79.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 33c | 72.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…23c6backed Over | 33c | 61.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +11.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 126 | 57.9%73 W · 53 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Over | 33c | 53.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 33c | 48.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 33c | 41.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked Over | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Over | 34c | 33.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Over | 35c | 30.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2823…eb3dbacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Under | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…c6dabacked Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…4605backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 58cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…d7e9backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x554b…8216backed Under | 67c | 17.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5this page
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.