Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x702adc689e36626ba0eb6b9425046799c516f2f040f6fe8901696cc682863300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 44c | 441.34$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.03 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 402.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 322$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 287.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 244.38$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 44c | 226.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.44 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 185.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 38c | 176.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 66c | 151.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 143.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 70c | 141.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 130.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes | 36c | 110.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 108.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 38c | 105.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 38c | 98.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 46c | 98.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…aa32backed No | 18c | 97.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 95.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 78.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 72.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 74c | 72.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 16c | 69.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 40c | 69.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 60c | 60.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 59.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 57.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…5b35backed Yes | 36c | 53.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 52.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 65c | 51.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 49.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 39c | 48.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…2b19backed Yes | 42c | 46.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 31c | 45.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 30c | 43.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…bcbabacked No | 66c | 43.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 53c | 41.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 34c | 41.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 63c | 40.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…80d8backed No | 60c | 39.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd938…fa19backed No | 63c | 39.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 37.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 35.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8236…bfbabacked Yes | 43c | 35.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 30c | 33.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 32.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 40c | 30.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 44c | 29.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…bd31backed Yes | 77c | 28.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 64c | 26.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 59c | 24.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 48c | 21.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…f081backed No | 66c | 20.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 67c | 20.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 57c | 18.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 70c | 17.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 70c | 14.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.