Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0370f0b094355072782a3a1dfd3552307e7c6b612d7c4f6253af807237d8c45c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 5c | 726.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 407.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 61c | 376.64$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 16c | 371.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 365.61$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 41c | 363.66$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 29c | 350.93$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 297.06$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 49c | 264.42$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 264.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 240.71$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.53 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 35c | 234.46$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 232.75$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 209.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 36c | 165.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 62c | 155.41$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 50c | 151$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 146.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcd…e673backed Yes | 47c | 146.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 15c | 135.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ec…31b6backed Yes | 43c | 128.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…af98backed Yes | 35c | 128.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 69c | 125.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 123.72$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 113.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 62c | 100.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 36c | 99.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…8334backed Yes | 30c | 96.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 95.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 48c | 94.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…df53backed Yes | 11c | 93.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 92.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed Yes | 39c | 92.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 55c | 92.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c6…a8b5backed Yes | 37c | 89.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 69c | 87.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 72c | 86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 64c | 80.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 21c | 78.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 74.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6f…ddf5backed Yes | 23c | 72.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed Yes | 63c | 69.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 50c | 69.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 68.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 27c | 67.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 66c | 66.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…add9backed Yes | 45c | 65.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 77c | 64.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 61.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 59.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 47c | 59.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 36c | 55.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 25c | 52.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 30c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 50.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 39c | 50.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 49c | 50.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…bd31backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 48.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…a744backed Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 26c | 46.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 43c | 45.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 43.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 43c | 42.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 53c | 41.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 38.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 46c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 37.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 55c | 35.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked No | 61c | 33.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked Yes | 38c | 32.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed Yes | 55c | 32.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…89b8backed No | 67c | 31.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 57c | 30.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 50c | 30.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 35c | 29.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 28.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 67c | 27.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 27.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 23.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.