NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Golden Knights
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x702b1236f855ecdc8341174348c7afd12303ed27d7dd50f9ee3d240826eb0deb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Flames, Golden Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Flames | 30c | 1,970$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.6 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…a72ebacked Golden Knights | 65c | 1,191$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Flames | 35c | 1,079$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.62 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Golden Knights | 68c | 1,001$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.3 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…e8ccbacked Golden Knights | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Golden Knights | 68c | 999.98$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.99 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Flames | 32c | 917.94$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.74 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Flames | 32c | 761.96$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.83 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…256dbacked Golden Knights | 67c | 576.21$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa483…c2b6backed Flames | 33c | 570$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…1c3fbacked Flames | 32c | 527.93$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.94 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Golden Knights | 70c | 466.37$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Flames | 7c | 367.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Flames | 10c | 366.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Flames | 32c | 366.09$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.93 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Flames | 33c | 254.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Golden Knights | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 372 | 54.3%202 W · 170 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Golden Knights | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Flames | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c3…61ebbacked Golden Knights | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0a…e4eabacked Golden Knights | 68c | 182.35$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…f186backed Golden Knights | 68c | 157.35$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 135 | 62.2%84 W · 51 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Flames | 21c | 150.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…e43bbacked Golden Knights | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -6.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flames | 27c | 133.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…7ae6backed Flames | 31c | 132.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bf…7851backed Flames | 33c | 119.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…e52cbacked Flames | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Golden Knights | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Flames | 32c | 99.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e2…0187backed Golden Knights | 68c | 99.81$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Flames | 32c | 87.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4202…9611backed Golden Knights | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed Golden Knights | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 486 | 54.1%263 W · 223 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…36ddbacked Flames | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9863…cf3cbacked Flames | 33c | 47.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Golden Knights | 63c | 44.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 731 | 57.5%420 W · 311 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…e94ebacked Flames | 32c | 39.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…67c6backed Golden Knights | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89d…b80ebacked Golden Knights | 69c | 34.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0429…310fbacked Golden Knights | 67c | 34.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9673…8409backed Flames | 33c | 34.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23f3…0008backed Flames | 33c | 33.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ff…4802backed Golden Knights | 67c | 33.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…6159backed Golden Knights | 69c | 32.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30cd…f9f0backed Flames | 37c | 31.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…1ea8backed Flames | 33c | 31.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa6…d3eabacked Golden Knights | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2f…c975backed Flames | 33c | 31.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf302…d774backed Golden Knights | 67c | 30.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Golden Knights | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…9e74backed Golden Knights | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…b972backed Golden Knights | 71c | 29.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…06c4backed Golden Knights | 67c | 26.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…1ee0backed Golden Knights | 67c | 26.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…726cbacked Golden Knights | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…625abacked Golden Knights | 67c | 21.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b0…f3e5backed Golden Knights | 67c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2c…b94dbacked Golden Knights | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…311dbacked Golden Knights | 67c | 19.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…ea37backed Golden Knights | 67c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…6ce9backed Golden Knights | 67c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…9e08backed Golden Knights | 67c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9f…a0debacked Golden Knights | 70c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1de…18f2backed Golden Knights | 68c | 14.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.