MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x703867491a5df4028f702f6891c81642372ec937369104f0c8021690fdf71144
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 33c | 6,532$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,177.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 5,795$3,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 69c | 2,835$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Houston Astros | 27c | 2,579$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.37 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 849.94$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.35 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Houston Astros | 37c | 580.42$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.03 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Houston Astros | 40c | 432.28$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.91 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 392.72$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 36c | 392.72$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.38 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 282.46$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 242.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 185.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 63c | 123.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 32c | 108.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston Astros | 31c | 107.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Houston Astros | 35c | 99.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Detroit Tigers | 69c | 98.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Houston Astros | 12c | 95.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Detroit Tigers | 73c | 92.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 84.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 82.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 82.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 81.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Houston Astros | 37c | 52.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Detroit Tigers | 75c | 48.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Houston Astros | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 36c | 39.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 33.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Houston Astros | 60c | 30.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 28.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 27.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Detroit Tigers | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Houston Astros | 45c | 26.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Detroit Tigers | 69c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.