MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22462ddb4ac256e419320aeec7202aafd38f2e597f77709196bf9169b0301086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f0c…7ca5backed Under | 55c | 183,904$101,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,815.92 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -7.9wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 122,267$54,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,931.06 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 11,711$5,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,270.03 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 11,405$5,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,128.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 45c | 11,111$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 7,593$3,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,428.75 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 5,966$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,684.67 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 4,482$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.9 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 4,154$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.24 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 44c | 2,497$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.72 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 56c | 2,367$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.48 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 46c | 2,140$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.44 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 1,533$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.52 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 1,479$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 963.15$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a15…bdbdbacked Under | 59c | 941.26$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 840$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 9c | 670$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…da0bbacked Under | 57c | 528.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 45c | 495.84$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.13 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 45c | 480$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 442$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 437.5$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.31 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 362.68$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.51 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 45c | 308.4$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 243$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 44c | 214.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 172.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 35c | 141.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Under | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 125.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 53c | 96.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 59c | 95.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…7ef8backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 40c | 88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 61c | 81.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 18c | 69.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 62.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 56.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 33c | 43.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 47c | 24.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Over | 45c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…aeb3backed Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf234…7f34backed Under | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.