MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b5dfd96f1d6aca5405b6fda7e979c11cb759a13d2ba527cf140815a14a56cbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1467…4372backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 18,919$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 17,594$11,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,117.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 7,641$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros | 64c | 3,428$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.22 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 1,667$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.18 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 21c | 1,543$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Houston Astros | 63c | 1,526$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.46 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros | 79c | 1,203$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.95 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 64c | 654.56$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 538.5$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.86 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 537$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.91 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 64c | 458.03$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.89 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 63c | 420.74$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.52 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros | 63c | 399$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.63 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 325$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Houston Astros | 73c | 232.02$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b48…1d20backed Detroit Tigers | 21c | 185.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Detroit Tigers | 25c | 181.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Houston Astros | 64c | 80.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Detroit Tigers | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 65.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 61.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 57.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Detroit Tigers | 36c | 54.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Houston Astros | 68c | 47.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Houston Astros | 66c | 37.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Detroit Tigers | 35c | 30.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Houston Astros | 64c | 30.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 24.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Houston Astros | 65c | 23.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Houston Astros | 77c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Houston Astros | 67c | 19.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.