MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0b5ae5fb18ce33b4f3e0b975027836b777c9d49cc234f69a01fb36bcae91c69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97cb…e4d0backed Under | 48c | 19,059$9,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,900.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 11,495$5,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,978.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 52c | 4,738$2,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274.56 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 4,471$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Over | 57c | 2,654$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.14 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 58c | 1,967$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,600$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 53c | 1,400$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 46c | 1,314$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.56 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 45c | 1,200$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.99 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 1,020$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.97 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 976.24$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 43c | 843.34$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.2 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 719.47$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.58 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 14c | 599$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 52c | 594.63$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.13 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 54c | 428.98$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.65 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 52c | 420$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed Under | 48c | 415.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 52c | 377.9$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.51 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 360$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 55c | 336.58$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.12 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 316.65$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 307.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b4d2backed Under | 48c | 300.77$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.4 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 57c | 296.55$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.03 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 287.81$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 56c | 259$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.54 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 45c | 240.37$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.49 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…4907backed Under | 43c | 204.65$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 58c | 196.55$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 55c | 185$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 179.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 57c | 179.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 10c | 160.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 52c | 125.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2208…53eebacked Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 54c | 111.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 53c | 83.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 53c | 80.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d2…ea45backed Over | 44c | 65.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Under | 48c | 62.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 58c | 51.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 48.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 48c | 40.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 58c | 34.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 44c | 34.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…4d4abacked Under | 48c | 31.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Under | 48c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 30.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 42c | 28.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 46c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 53c | 22.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 55c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 57c | 20.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 66c | 15.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.