Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x708368f2a762de68e9a0aec8dacbf0121746d40696a3ddad8d0dd49715f428c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 18,149$9,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,977.84 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…c6a0backed Over | 45c | 15,537$6,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,566.92 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…bd70backed Under | 58c | 1,603$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 49c | 1,264$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.95 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…6e09backed Under | 57c | 1,242$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…969cbacked Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…8bc9backed Over | 53c | 925.31$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Under | 54c | 756$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.3 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Over | 48c | 401.75$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.47 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…b04cbacked Under | 56c | 377.73$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Over | 46c | 310.74$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.91 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 45c | 266.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…ecf8backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 46c | 220.67$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7093…a798backed Over | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 161.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 44c | 155.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Under | 61c | 148.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Over | 45c | 137.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 67c | 122.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7962…5f3cbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Over | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb276…6514backed Over | 48c | 103.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e8…8137backed Over | 39c | 89.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Under | 64c | 80.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 45c | 79.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 48c | 76.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Over | 49c | 74.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 44c | 72.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…3273backed Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Under | 56c | 62.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb163…368dbacked Over | 45c | 55.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c81…e3a4backed Under | 57c | 52.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Over | 44c | 49.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 33c | 45.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 56c | 44.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…c297backed Over | 55c | 43.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…e3f2backed Under | 47c | 42.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Over | 40c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Under | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 44c | 37.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Over | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…09d5backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 38c | 31.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 45c | 31.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1c…98e8backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 52c | 29.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Under | 57c | 28.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 39c | 26.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc08…5acdbacked Under | 57c | 25.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Under | 52c | 20.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc55b…b164backed Over | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- First Blood in Game 2?Team Yandex won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)Team Yandex won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.