Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x709f1378e069d89f9c4d132a4a84dafd6ee5cbfa965a2d0596e6ac2e9cd4c627
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vici Gamingof 1win, Vici Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed 1win | 43c | 4,686$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Vici Gaming | 55c | 3,588$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.94 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Vici Gaming | 60c | 3,510$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399 | 290 | 43.4%126 W · 164 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…12ccbacked 1win | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb29f…45b5backed 1win | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Vici Gaming | 51c | 852.2$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.46 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd5…28f2backed Vici Gaming | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c8…a814backed 1win | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Vici Gaming | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Vici Gaming | 55c | 276.01$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.29 | 427 | 67%286 W · 141 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed 1win | 46c | 253.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.7 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…878ebacked 1win | 48c | 230$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.31 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Vici Gaming | 58c | 199.28$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Vici Gaming | 53c | 185.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 435 | 60.5%263 W · 172 L | +43.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Vici Gaming | 59c | 180.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Vici Gaming | 58c | 171.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 263 | 43%113 W · 150 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Vici Gaming | 59c | 160$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…a307backed 1win | 53c | 157.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ce…9378backed Vici Gaming | 54c | 144.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Vici Gaming | 57c | 132.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked 1win | 40c | 114.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed 1win | 41c | 107.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Vici Gaming | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked 1win | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed 1win | 47c | 99.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Vici Gaming | 56c | 88.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Vici Gaming | 58c | 85.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Vici Gaming | 50c | 79.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Vici Gaming | 37c | 74.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…747fbacked 1win | 63c | 74.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed 1win | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked 1win | 44c | 63.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked 1win | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed 1win | 48c | 55.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160a…43d3backed Vici Gaming | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Vici Gaming | 55c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed 1win | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Vici Gaming | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 250 | 47.6%119 W · 131 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Vici Gaming | 55c | 49.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Vici Gaming | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Vici Gaming | 56c | 42.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 145 | 42.1%61 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Vici Gaming | 52c | 42.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…8b50backed 1win | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Vici Gaming | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Vici Gaming | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed 1win | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Vici Gaming | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 144 | 66%95 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup SurvivalVici Gaming won
- Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerVici Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.