Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70b18992eb65f9146a4f7c922e3dc5563ff815e8cb38a8e86129b3c25c49b018
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 40c | 2,819$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.74 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 2,712$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 60c | 1,411$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.53 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 44c | 689.06$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 47c | 399.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 57c | 323.97$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.25 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 48c | 295$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.12 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 48c | 218.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 53c | 127.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 54c | 105.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Yes | 47c | 75.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…05ddbacked No | 57c | 75.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 41c | 66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Yes | 41c | 47.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f9…6e1dbacked Yes | 45c | 45.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 68c | 40.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 61c | 18.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.