Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f0875fbdeac6169a70f01c80b720217b9f1f87a5602661f6f6a9cffc6997446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbfc…5cfabacked Over | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 7,065$3,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,066.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 63c | 4,443$2,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.09 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 1,923$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.03 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 19c | 999$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 67c | 760.37$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.83 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd260…b480backed Over | 62c | 450$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 59c | 431.45$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.96 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 20c | 249.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Over | 34c | 218$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 21c | 146.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 60c | 142.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcc…e083backed Over | 61c | 140$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 41c | 127.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 72c | 126.19$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 53c | 96.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 38c | 89.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 39c | 84.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 61c | 64.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 20c | 63.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 19c | 63.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 40c | 61.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…1d88backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f0…e0a7backed Under | 80c | 47.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 55c | 45.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…101fbacked Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 80c | 19.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…871fbacked Under | 78c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.