TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$167,310
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,310 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Over37c66,552$24,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,760.662759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Over38c44,695$16,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,710.76251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under62c39,441$24,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,453.561,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under60c12,500$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5001855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over40c11,578$4,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,003.323,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under63c10,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under61c8,131$4,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,996.512,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under62c6,307$3,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,905.2478248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under64c6,000$3,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,84016647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1502646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83b6…9dbdbacked Under60c4,804$2,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,874.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Under61c4,000$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,440366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under64c3,831$2,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,438.489951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Under63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8907057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8906459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Under65c2,262$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.33953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over38c2,252$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.171,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under62c2,103$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.8535856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under69c1,847$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.551,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d8…dd09backed Over75c1,656$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.62580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Over34c1,269$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.729532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over30c1,090$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76311630.2%35 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under62c1,048$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65014157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under63c900$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.522854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under63c900$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.515454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under63c900$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.58864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under63c833$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.799459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e16…a795backed Under61c819.67$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under63c800$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5048764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over38c752.64$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.648251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under63c720$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45014355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under63c700$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.513957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under63c600$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3758461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under63c560$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35012757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8120…057dbacked Under5c541.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6760%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48d7…1bd1backed Over38c522.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.06650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+63.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17512952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under64c500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3205052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f0…e0a7backed Over44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801080%8 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under49c487.76$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2391758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Under63c476.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-58.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over33c428.7$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.235853.4%31 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under63c400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25212162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under63c392.22$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.4844749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under63c340$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.511458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under63c340$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.56556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under63c340$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.511259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under63c340$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.512458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under63c340$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.512358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under63c340$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.511563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under63c300$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.58261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under63c300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18924258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under63c300$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.56959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under63c300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18912858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over77c296.39$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4513073.1%95 W · 35 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over40c286.75$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.6925850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over40c261.21$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.4418746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under63c250$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.525659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Under63c240$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under63c240$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under63c240$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under63c240$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under63c225$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7515453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over40c206$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.610361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under63c200$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1259659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Under63c200$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1255957.6%34 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12613256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Under63c200$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1258155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under63c180$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.412356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Under63c172.96$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.672650%13 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under63c170$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.113859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under63c170$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.16460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe05b…0912backed Under61c164.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+41.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under61c163$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4318545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under63c160$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed Under63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006159%36 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2e…44c3backed Under60c152$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…307dbacked Over66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.525149%25 W · 26 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under63c150$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.510855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d20…1f58backed Over66c133.36$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.34666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe720…0f1cbacked Under64c129.81$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under59c129.05$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3851136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f97…a9b3backed Under28c126.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under63c120$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.612259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Under63c120$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Under63c120$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Under63c120$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.66162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Under63c120$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Under63c120$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Under63c120$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.66259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Under63c120$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Under63c120$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511063.6%70 W · 40 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over75c120$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3012069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Over40c107.47$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.468253.7%44 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over33c105.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9327142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Under64c100.75$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.577230.6%22 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Under63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Under63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.511661.2%71 W · 45 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Over36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647753.2%41 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90a5…9dccbacked Over32c97.94$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.66761.2%41 W · 26 L+13.8wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.