TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,105 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under51c42,764$21,810 inWon+$20,954.512,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Over49c42,428$20,790 inLost-$20,789.6829351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Over48c7,075$3,396 inLost-$3,39692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under52c6,656$3,461 inWon+$3,194.861,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under52c6,656$3,461 inWon+$3,194.862,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c4,352$2,107 inLost-$2,106.79,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Under51c450.51$230 inWon+$220.7528751.9%149 W · 138 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under52c400$206 inWon+$1942,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over48c395.54$190 inLost-$189.862,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over49c256$125 inLost-$125.448,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under51c245.1$125 inWon+$120.140952.1%213 W · 196 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Over49c173.43$85 inLost-$84.985743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03c4…01bdbacked Under52c144.23$75 inWon+$69.231855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over48c106$51 inLost-$50.8862541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Under51c73.53$37 inWon+$36.0338347%180 W · 203 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Over49c69.33$34 inLost-$33.9776250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…3f14backed Under51c61.27$31 inWon+$30.028347%39 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under52c50$26 inWon+$2449852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under52c31.73$16 inWon+$15.2312648.4%61 W · 65 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c3…f427backed Under51c31.53$16 inWon+$15.4311546.1%53 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under52c27.51$14 inWon+$13.2993849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under52c20.38$11 inWon+$9.7842551.3%218 W · 207 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under52c20.38$11 inWon+$9.7841354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.