NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa5921766dac757a559af20c9af42b4c2ff2bc2734b59b23d9f1819f9a3a792a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 5,781$2,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,029.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…4775backed Over | 53c | 3,947$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…ef00backed Over | 51c | 2,733$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 2,450$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 54c | 1,114$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 46c | 1,106$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.06 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 1,021$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.79 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 48c | 806.78$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.53 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 604.81$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.12 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 45c | 151$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…b0d9backed Over | 55c | 127$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6591…a0fbbacked Under | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 62.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Under | 47c | 36.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Over | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Over | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Under | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Over | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 23.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d3bebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. BullsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.