NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b3986f9fc05ea28bd2283339453b7bf8d1e5d01341bcc66e32584369b0059b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Over | 51c | 28,331$14,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,492.77 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 20,672$9,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,745.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 49c | 9,972$4,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,085.52 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…ef00backed Over | 50c | 7,866$3,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,908 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 53c | 7,550$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 47c | 7,500$3,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,975 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 49c | 4,114$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,098.14 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Under | 49c | 2,508$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.18 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 53c | 2,264$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 1,928$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.8 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Over | 54c | 1,147$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.47 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 53c | 1,122$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Over | 53c | 1,090$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.7 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +73%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 47c | 340$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 52c | 310.42$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.42 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 162$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 46c | 125$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 48c | 88.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…b99abacked Under | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 49c | 41.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Under | 48c | 37.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Under | 49c | 28.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 49c | 28.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. BullsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.