NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30fd48929ebb3f9a6869309ab9285a7de17d1277fb82e4f4d7528be2d394a1c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 51c | 2,396$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.92 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 52c | 2,119$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 565.95$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 53c | 565.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 54c | 141.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…3f06backed Under | 46c | 141.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 48c | 108$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Under | 48c | 108$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 48c | 108$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 42c | 97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c35…2965backed Under | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Under | 47c | 59.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 54c | 51.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 51.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 46c | 48.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 46.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 44c | 44.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 47c | 41.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 42c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Over | 58c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 32.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Over | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Over | 52c | 23.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Over | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. BullsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.