NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0cd65441074ab102baf76d31f70d3324fc7a7aeec4db0d15409a38e80bd70f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 50c | 19,773$9,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,886.38 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…7a17backed Timberwolves | 50c | 16,000$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Bulls | 51c | 13,334$6,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,790.94 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Timberwolves | 49c | 12,827$6,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,541.53 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bulls | 51c | 12,169$6,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,206.39 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bulls | 51c | 12,160$6,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,201.41 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Timberwolves | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Timberwolves | 49c | 4,851$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.81 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 4,500$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 4,061$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.22 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 50c | 4,030$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5c…36f0backed Timberwolves | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…4775backed Timberwolves | 49c | 3,701$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,870.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Timberwolves | 49c | 3,549$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.14 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1246backed Timberwolves | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…982dbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a0…42a3backed Bulls | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…a2a9backed Bulls | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0993…f5acbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 49c | 1,838$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.38 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Bulls | 52c | 1,439$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.35 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 51c | 1,300$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bulls | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Timberwolves | 48c | 710.62$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.52 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves | 45c | 682.99$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.19 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Bulls | 57c | 556.86$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.41 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Timberwolves | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Bulls | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Timberwolves | 49c | 314$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.14 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…36b5backed Timberwolves | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Bulls | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…5b36backed Bulls | 51c | 203.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Bulls | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Bulls | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 48c | 189.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc61…9d15backed Bulls | 51c | 137$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Bulls | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Bulls | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Timberwolves | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Bulls | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Timberwolves | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Bulls | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Bulls | 52c | 48.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Bulls | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Bulls | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…4dc6backed Bulls | 52c | 20.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Bulls | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Bulls | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…7f18backed Bulls | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. BullsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.