World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70deace4d51c2a802b652c607bad07a035e4393dbe283f1b7de38619dd7d3426
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 272.92$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.17 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 66c | 187.02$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.77 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 184.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.65 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 173.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 139$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 135.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 118.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 103.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed Yes | 39c | 99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…365bbacked Yes | 33c | 90.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 41c | 88.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c86…57c5backed Yes | 30c | 87.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 86.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 45c | 86.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 86.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9223…67c0backed Yes | 47c | 85.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 81.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 80.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 73.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 72.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 63.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 56.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 47c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 42c | 51.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 33c | 45.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 30c | 42.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefcd…849ebacked Yes | 45c | 40.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 38.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…29b2backed Yes | 30c | 35.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 34.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 56c | 33.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 33c | 32.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 32.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4386…59ddbacked Yes | 47c | 31.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 30.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 30.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 29.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 68c | 29.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -64%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 39c | 28.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 27.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 49c | 26.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 23.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 55c | 23.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 68c | 20.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 65c | 18.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.