Australian A League · resolved market
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70e520bd402c482c228e91b79440f36677cf9eca5e0b7ae1586382f5f28137f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 11,123$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.11 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 79c | 10,000$7,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.98 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 77c | 2,622$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.31 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 69c | 1,452$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.66 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 75c | 992.26$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.08 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 77c | 938.03$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.35 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 45c | 919.99$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 901.14$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.24 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Under | 60c | 842.74$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 22c | 821.01$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.82 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 36c | 593.8$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.03 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…633bbacked Over | 23c | 500$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 402.82$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 35c | 347.73$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.44 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Over | 22c | 279.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 49c | 249.45$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Over | 22c | 227.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 29c | 208.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d59…31dcbacked Under | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 56c | 174.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 46c | 170$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 35c | 155.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Over | 17c | 153.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 23c | 145.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 38c | 131.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Under | 47c | 127.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 38c | 116.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 47c | 106.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…07d5backed Over | 21c | 97.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Over | 34c | 92.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 32c | 87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 49c | 63.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 29c | 62.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed6a…841ebacked Over | 22c | 55.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 35c | 54.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 28c | 54.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 78c | 53.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Under | 80c | 51.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Under | 75c | 47.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 32c | 45.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 44.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 31c | 42.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Under | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ac…b988backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…00eabacked Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 59c | 25.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 60c | 25.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Under | 77c | 23.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 79c | 21.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Under | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1456…edb2backed Under | 75c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-1.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-2.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.