Australian A League · resolved market
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78983e298e5135ba547033f4b4cdc940548daee94b600779a8cf0c2e81ea907c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 38c | 2,536$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.72 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 42c | 1,824$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.93 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Over | 58c | 1,725$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.69 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 1,352$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.26 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 62c | 1,195$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.04 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…4fd9backed Over | 65c | 830.22$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…a29dbacked Over | 62c | 812.52$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 770.72$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.58 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 632.93$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.21 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 31c | 326.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 40c | 317$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 38c | 290.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.57 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 15c | 256.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Over | 75c | 205.19$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 204.92$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Under | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…5780backed Over | 61c | 192.02$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 36c | 187.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 61c | 179.75$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…f8a0backed Over | 61c | 162.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 62c | 161$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…da98backed Over | 62c | 131.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 15c | 130.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 97.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 69c | 87.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 36c | 87.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 62c | 85.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0988…f6f9backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 56.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Under | 39c | 51.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 41c | 36.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 59c | 33.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…64e7backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…a1d7backed Under | 39c | 26.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313c…61d9backed Over | 62c | 24.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…eeb1backed Over | 78c | 22.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Over | 63c | 17.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Over | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +84%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-1.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-2.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.