MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70f345f465bb50e849126c06db2e5cfe5a175de4842e6a5126e828020758f872
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 31,671$13,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,618.58 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 16,694$6,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,677.78 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 12,686$7,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,074.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 11,082$6,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.11 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 9,290$5,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,994.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 9,129$3,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,651.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 4,538$2,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 3,802$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 1,996$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.11 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 1,530$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.28 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 1,046$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.63 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 1,024$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 886.23$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.22 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 698$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.16 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 413.72$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.72 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 388.32$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.69 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 350.56$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.72 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 280.86$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 230.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 229.56$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 169.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 116$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 95.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 63.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 58.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 53.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 51.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 35.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 33.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 29.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 24.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…6872backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 24.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 20.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 19.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 15.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.