MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cf888edc9da274b913bb37d0c79fe36660e87a55b4f5588a56dbcbc9d2a5755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3551…a581backed No | 46c | 215.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 54c | 83.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 54c | 74.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 56c | 74.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 56c | 69.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Yes | 58c | 55.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 42c | 35.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…35a1backed Yes | 54c | 31.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…581fbacked Yes | 54c | 30.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…7599backed Yes | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e83…7ed6backed Yes | 55c | 26.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…ac4abacked Yes | 54c | 25.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…88a0backed Yes | 56c | 25.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 62cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…44c4backed Yes | 55c | 24.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0381…f76cbacked Yes | 55c | 24.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…8325backed Yes | 56c | 24.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…9923backed Yes | 56c | 24.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…594cbacked Yes | 54c | 24.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…1a36backed Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…c7edbacked Yes | 56c | 23.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…b2fcbacked Yes | 54c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…78d3backed Yes | 56c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…b52dbacked Yes | 56c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…a082backed Yes | 54c | 22.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…19f2backed Yes | 56c | 22.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…1ea2backed Yes | 54c | 22.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…436cbacked Yes | 56c | 22.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…7b2fbacked Yes | 56c | 22.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d52…8ab8backed Yes | 56c | 21.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…1e56backed Yes | 56c | 21.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…8b1cbacked Yes | 55c | 21.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…a945backed Yes | 56c | 21.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…cfbcbacked Yes | 56c | 21.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440b…7551backed Yes | 54c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…eeadbacked Yes | 54c | 21.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…443bbacked Yes | 55c | 21.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…ff8abacked Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4141…b90fbacked Yes | 54c | 20.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…6977backed Yes | 55c | 20.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd10d…2642backed Yes | 54c | 20.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…d069backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…8045backed Yes | 54c | 19.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…abaebacked Yes | 56c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…fd77backed Yes | 56c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe76…fb1bbacked Yes | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5206backed Yes | 54c | 18.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c4…6a4abacked Yes | 55c | 18.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe2…49d1backed Yes | 56c | 18.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Oriolesthis page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 15.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.