Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70fac5ef022848c3ebbab251589933850bdf84d2bb6649780dba62321efc3003
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2011…845bbacked No | 18c | 1,229$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.29 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 60c | 1,113$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.51 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 43c | 209.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 75c | 202.75$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 201$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 30c | 159.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 22c | 158.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 40c | 152.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 44c | 150.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 147.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 146$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 23c | 144$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 55c | 133.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 119.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 74c | 116.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 60c | 98.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 69c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 37c | 89.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 88.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 70c | 82.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 79.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 44c | 76.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 73.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 29c | 73.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 73.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 25c | 67.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 62.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…bba7backed Yes | 76c | 61.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 66c | 57.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 48c | 55.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 53.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 52.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 56c | 52.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 52.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 51.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 49.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed Yes | 42c | 47.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 31c | 45.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 37c | 44.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 29c | 44.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…b884backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 29c | 39.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 34c | 36.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 58c | 36.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 30c | 35.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 73c | 34.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 57c | 30.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd165…b94cbacked Yes | 41c | 28.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 59c | 23.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.