Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan State Spartans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7112209bdb9b92c52b790a0067a7e11e30b9b364486f84a0517149ed956c27aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, Penn State Nittany Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 25c | 6,800$1,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,703.18 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Michigan State Spartans | 75c | 6,700$5,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675 | 116 | 62.1%72 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 13c | 2,639$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.34 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 69c | 2,315$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.53 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 30c | 2,050$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.32 | 105 | 11.4%12 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 21c | 1,929$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.98 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 13c | 1,411$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.43 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 12c | 1,307$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.85 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 29c | 1,274$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.86 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State Spartans | 75c | 1,054$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.42 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Michigan State Spartans | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…1332backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 28c | 999.98$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 15c | 800$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Michigan State Spartans | 79c | 798.34$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.55 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 11c | 772.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 768.15$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.61 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 45c | 634.78$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Michigan State Spartans | 69c | 622.28$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Michigan State Spartans | 76c | 585$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.18 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 14c | 565.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff2…49febacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 21c | 511.24$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…d7cabacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 13c | 467.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 13c | 447.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed Michigan State Spartans | 73c | 312.4$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Michigan State Spartans | 76c | 305$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 13c | 282.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 12c | 245.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 13c | 216.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 6c | 199.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5ed9backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 21c | 192.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e3…e5b3backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 15c | 145$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…9462backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 254 | 38.2%97 W · 157 L | -14.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 13c | 97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 28c | 79.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan State Spartans | 77c | 56.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…cd8bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…81a9backed Michigan State Spartans | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Michigan State Spartans | 74c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Penn State Nittany Lionsthis page
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-11.5)Penn State Nittany Lions won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-13.5)Penn State Nittany Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.