Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x711a1cb615b84732b7d7830b875b9f1cda781f70b90c21fe75a028c1668bfd86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 456.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 320.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 23c | 191.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.56 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 184.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.08 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 177.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 12c | 170.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked Yes | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.66 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 22c | 150.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 77c | 147.3$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 146$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 8c | 146$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 135$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 23c | 128$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 125.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 115$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 114.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 99.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 88.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 42c | 83.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 75.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 75.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 73.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 73c | 69.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 25c | 63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 33c | 53.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 41c | 49.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 36c | 47.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 44.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 58c | 43.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 70c | 40.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 39.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 50c | 37.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 60c | 33.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 31.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 29.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 72c | 27.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 26.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 62c | 24.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 72c | 23.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 22.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 21.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 21.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 61c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 15.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 75c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 74c | 13.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 75c | 13.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.