NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71382c1e879d2d657883f94fb915924c70408b054555a43205a381fa361a1bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 6,224$3,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,919.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 45c | 5,653$2,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,543.64 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 56c | 1,680$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.2 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Under | 50c | 1,410$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 1,090$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.72 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 52c | 1,058$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.69 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Over | 53c | 1,009$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.45 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1428…017cbacked Under | 44c | 904.89$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 52c | 611$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.72 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 578$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.32 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 547.47$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 45c | 417$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.65 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Over | 53c | 405.66$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.66 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 14c | 346$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Over | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 232.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…7c32backed Over | 65c | 216.52$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 43c | 198.58$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…2345backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -12.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…9141backed Over | 57c | 150.88$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over | 71c | 145.94$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Under | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 49c | 97.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 44c | 84.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Over | 51c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 44c | 57.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Under | 44c | 55.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Over | 51c | 38.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 50c | 34.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 51c | 27.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…12d7backed Under | 50c | 25.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 67c | 17.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Pacers vs. MagicMagic won
- Pacers vs. Magic: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.