NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb47241781a8b9114db07519e0c9b46a9680707de06381db6a575a4e7e661ee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Pacers | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 46c | 5,115$2,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,741.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 46c | 3,887$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,104.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Pacers | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…b6ffbacked Pacers | 55c | 2,682$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.94 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Pacers | 4c | 2,200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 49c | 2,080$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.97 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Pacers | 52c | 1,958$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Pacers | 55c | 1,819$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.11 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Pacers | 3c | 1,800$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Pacers | 54c | 1,455$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.7 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Pacers | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Pacers | 57c | 1,147$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.79 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Pacers | 53c | 1,104$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.23 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Pacers | 53c | 851.06$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.06 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Magic | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.06 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Pacers | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Pacers | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Magic | 50c | 468.4$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.54 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Pacers | 54c | 450$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Magic | 46c | 338$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pacers | 49c | 308.04$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Pacers | 54c | 252.49$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.34 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Pacers | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Magic | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Magic | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Pacers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Pacers | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Magic | 47c | 134.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Pacers | 69c | 123.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Pacers | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pacers | 56c | 89.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Magic | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pacers | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Magic | 49c | 79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Magic | 45c | 76.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Pacers | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…3995backed Pacers | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9f…ebc0backed Pacers | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 53c | 50.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Magic | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Magic | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…0c93backed Magic | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Pacers | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Pacers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Pacers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…c2c2backed Magic | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 46c | 32.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Magic | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Pacers | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Pacers | 53c | 19.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Pacers vs. MagicMagic won
- Pacers vs. Magic: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.