TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 228.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,297
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,297 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Under50c1,620$810 inLost-$8104,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under52c1,446$757 inLost-$757.159,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89bd…3f72backed Over50c1,287$644 inWon+$643.511243.8%49 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over49c1,172$574 inWon+$597.8750241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over48c1,063$510 inWon+$552.7658347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Under51c1,031$523 inLost-$522.5244648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Under1c1,000$10 inLost-$1045542.4%193 W · 262 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Over49c830.92$407 inWon+$423.7756043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under51c634$325 inLost-$324.912,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Under50c400$200 inLost-$20033258.7%195 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over48c400$191 inWon+$208.672,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Under51c387$197 inLost-$197.3762347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b0…5af4backed Under43c377.97$163 inLost-$162.532944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over50c250$125 inWon+$12585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under50c229$115 inLost-$114.52,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under53c188.68$100 inLost-$1001,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under50c112.65$56 inLost-$56.334,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Under51c100$51 inLost-$5121749.3%107 W · 110 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under56c100$56 inLost-$561,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under53c94.34$50 inLost-$501,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Under30c80$24 inLost-$23.9213155%72 W · 59 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under50c79$40 inLost-$39.52,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Over69c74.96$52 inWon+$22.9231144.4%138 W · 173 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c22…70a0backed Under55c68.21$38 inLost-$37.831855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb3…0710backed Under56c53.57$30 inLost-$3013957.6%80 W · 59 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over48c48.19$23 inWon+$25.062,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Under50c40$20 inLost-$2021051.4%108 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Under52c38.46$20 inLost-$2056454.3%306 W · 258 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa46d…59c4backed Under50c30$15 inLost-$1512149.6%60 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfdb…512cbacked Over48c29.16$14 inWon+$15.164959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over53c29.16$15 inWon+$13.713,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Over54c26.15$14 inWon+$12.0350648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Over54c20.37$11 inWon+$9.371662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+53.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.