NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bacadfc64425b3fa24ee94505a690535a59f328764a326f04054a39f4af5f44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 48c | 101,755$48,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,692.13 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 52c | 66,777$34,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,052.96 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…3292backed Over | 50c | 20,000$10,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,910.4 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 50c | 20,000$10,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,089.99 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 52c | 11,000$5,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,280 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Over | 53c | 6,395$3,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,005.47 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 3,360$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 3,348$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.49 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 2,769$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.6 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 53c | 2,389$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.92 | 277 | 35%97 W · 180 L | -30.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 53c | 2,343$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.21 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd856…f1f6backed Over | 49c | 2,200$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…00f6backed Under | 51c | 2,200$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 53c | 1,867$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.49 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 1,700$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 1,698$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.06 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 1,681$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.5 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,531$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.37 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 49c | 1,531$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.61 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.49 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 1,002$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.02 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 52c | 962$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.76 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…4e38backed Under | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 54c | 869.57$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 708.3$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.26 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 50c | 467.25$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.63 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 54c | 460$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.6 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…eca5backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 385$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.1 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…5af4backed Over | 53c | 378.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.49 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 53c | 330$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.1 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 52c | 242.46$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…7acebacked Over | 53c | 240.61$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 176.95$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 148.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 129.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Under | 50c | 98.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…963cbacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049e…ed99backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 52c | 44.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Over | 49c | 30.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 55c | 25.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Pacers vs. MagicMagic won
- Pacers vs. Magic: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.