Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7144b3ebc68dd5a87c509c4efc3fa26afd479a0c3c01c27e19ec1ce12da345ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c87…98b1backed No | 1c | 1,300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 42c | 861.38$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.38 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 824.7$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 18c | 611.76$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 70c | 507.12$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.37 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 494.7$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.97 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 40c | 409.73$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 6c | 348.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 28c | 305.77$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 289$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 266.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 65c | 204.03$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 72c | 167.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 53c | 165.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 10c | 162.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 136.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 132.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 130.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 120.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 14c | 115.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 104.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 18c | 99.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 53c | 95.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 44c | 82.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 76c | 82.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 81.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 81.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 79.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 75.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9074…ea32backed Yes | 17c | 74.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 25c | 68.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 43c | 68.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 49c | 64.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 64.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 30c | 64.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 62.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 60.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 30c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 45c | 43.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 57c | 42.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 59c | 40.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 60c | 39.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 74c | 36.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 54c | 32.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 30.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 29.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 28.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8c64backed No | 64c | 28.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 42c | 25.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 58c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…8afebacked Yes | 52c | 24.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 50c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 79c | 19.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.